Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Month 6 Week 2 Completion - Shot at 200nl but back to 100nl

Well as the title suggests i took a shot at 200nl, played well was up about $650 after the 1st day but i hit some horrible horrible variance on the 2nd day and lost about $1300 or more and ended up about $700 or so down in total. At this point i decided to move back to 100nl and wait till im properly bankrolled.

I played some horrible stuff at 100nl drifting back into my usual 3betting light without any clue what im at and getting in lots of trouble that was followed by more solid play at 100nl but i again hit some terrible variance.

Anyway i setup a new database when i moved up but i had a 2nd pc datamining and i ended up with double stats between the 2 different databases so i dont have any accurate stats but i know exactly what i lost:

100nl & 200nl
Estimated 6.5k Hand Played in total
Loss -$1096
Rakeback Approx $250
Total Loss -$846.00

So ive been putting it off long enough, 3betting has been putting me into alot of bad spots and as soon as i tighten up i start playing well but whenever i slip into an aggressive 3betting mood i can really hit some high variance as ive seen in many of the shocking swings ive had over the past few weeks. So i played very little and concentrated on going through alot of 200nl cardrunners videos to see how 3betting should go and as usual cardrunners is great for showing how simplistic things should be done and my 3betting style is way too aggressive. Ill watch a few more videos and ill read up a bit more on 3betting until im confident what im at but some of the hands ive been 3betting and calling 3bets with are ridiculous.

The other thing im going to try to develop is thinking through my logical thinking on a hand before i make turn/river calls. I think one of my strong suits is looking at a hand history and logically thinking through what my villains range is based on stats, betting patterns etc, but i find too often at the time i just make a decision without running that same logical process through my head that i would when analyzing a HH and i end up calling the likes of an all in with a flush on a paired board when if i think about it logically i know its not +EV to make the call even if hes bluffing sometimes. If i use this effectively my win rate will definetely improve alot. I need something to force me to do this in the beggining until it becomes 2nd nature like maybe writing down on a piece of paper what hands i think he would do this with before calling or talking the logical process i think when reviewing a HH so im forcing myself to hear my taughts, i know i wont work this into my game instantly but over the next week i hope to improve it drastically.

What i really want now is stability and i plan on making no moves to 200nl this side of Christmas, i want to apply the above to my game and get a good 6-8 weeks at 100nl where i want to really beat the level comfortably and keep my discipline as its becoming increasingly obvious that ive let my discipline drop over the last few weeks and i want to prove to myself im capable of beating this level. Im really confident i can do this and i expect to see some seriously good results in the next few weeks.

Friday, October 26, 2007

Month 6 Week 1 Completion

100nl Stats

8,578 Hands Played
Profit/Loss +$1,153.40
BB/100 6.72 (Poker Tracker)
V$PIP 20%
PFR 15%
Post Flop Aggro 2.13
Showdowns Won 52%
Rakeback $280.00(Estimated)
Joker Points Bonus $45
Total Proft/Loss +$1,478.40

Good week again and back on track, didnt play as many hands as i would have liked though but played a solid game. As you can see from the graph i had a great start to the week winning $1k in 2 x 2hr sessions and the rest of the week was a bit up and down but i was happy with my play. Im going to take a shot at 200nl next week, im under-rolled to be honest with about 4k but ive around $1k of rakeback due early next month so if i lose 4-5 buyins ill add that 1k to my bankroll and drop back and if i go well ill let the bankroll build to $7k and stay at 100nl.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Month 5 Week 4 Completion

100nl Stats

11,009 Hands Played
Profit/Loss -$523.93
BB/100 -2.38
V$PIP 21%
PFR 15%
Post Flop Aggro 1.85
Showdowns Won 48%
Rakeback $305.00 (Estimated)
Total Proft/Loss -$218.93

Another Tough Week and i burst out of the traps to a quick 1k profit before hitting a horrible patch of variance and i struggled to get going after that and it quickly turned sour and into a downward spiral. I got all in with the best hand so many times to get outdrawn it was sick but funnily enough i think i learn more during a tough week than i do when im coasting because i analyze my play more and think more about what plays are getting me into bad situations.



Ive noticed over the past few weeks ive had some serious downswings in 1 session upto 9 buyins down for example but ive recovered a few times against the odds but i wonder should i be quitting the session earlier and taking a break, i find it hard to quit in the middle of a session when im down and ill end up playing a longer session than normal to try and recover. Ill see if i can get some advice from people on it but i think its a weakness i have and i tend not to over tilt but i will make loose calls when i play in extended sessions.


The one thing i can take from this is its the 1st time in 2 months that ive finished with a loss which is something i can take from this rough patch but im confident now that over a extended period i am and will continue to be a winning player at 100nl and i have to master 3betting light and the concepts it involves before i can think of moving up to 200nl.

Heres the End of Months Stats for 100nl:

42,121 Played
Profit/Loss +$3,025.61
BB/100 3.59
V$PIP 20%
PFR 15%
Post Flop Aggro 2.07
Showdowns Won 50%
Rakeback $1,206.68
Total Proft/Loss +$4232.29

Approx $44 per Hour incl Rakeback for 96 hours

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Month 5 Week 3 Completion

Tough Week, I twice came back from $600 and $900 down to recover to a small loss and a small profit, i wasnt satisfied but just like a big favourite in a soccer game whos expected to win a game easily to go 2-0 down and come back and draw although theyll be disappointed of course it almost feels like a victory, i then followed that with a small win followed by a $450 dowswing but i came back strong in the last 2 days to a somewhat respectable level giving the week i had.



I decided against moving up quickly, somewhat because the bad variance hit home and reminds me how easy it is to lose a large % of your roll quickly and 2nd because i have a couple of trips planned before christmas so i want to concentrate on paying bills so ill have plenty available and also christmas itself when ill probably be playing very little and drinking alot, God i love the christmas sessions, you get to meet all your mates that have retired to family life and you dont see that often so its great to catch up.

Anyway difficult week but i finshed strong and i think ive got the variance out of the way for now but im sure i can expect alot worse in the future. With good bankroll management and logical thinking variance isnt really a bad thing, its basically odds evening out over a long period so if i have terrible variance this month in the coming months i can expect some good variance as things even themselves out and i think some people forget that AA vs QQ or AA vs S/C will win 1 time in 5, it has to happen so you just need to deal with it and get on.

Ive moved to GJP and so my rakeback will be paid early each month now but i can still calculate it via poker tracker so ill keep it updated weekly. When i moved i got a clean slate so i decided not to be doing silly things as i felt i was over 3betting and so i was getting called down too much by people who probably had notes on me. of coures thats great when you have a premium hand but if im being very aggressive ill have a marginal hand more often that a premium hand. So i think overall considering the downswing ive recovered well, didnt let tilt get too much hold of me when i was down there although there was occassions i did let it possess me but i guess thats to be expected, point being i got stuck in and recovered well instad of moaning about it and it paid off.

100nl Stats

12,772 Hands Played
Profit +$379.12
BB/100 1.48
V$PIP 20%
PFR 15%
Post Flop Aggro 2.14
Showdowns Won 50%
Rakeback $393.68

Never play tourneys but i chanced my arm at the GP $2.5k Freezout on Ipoker and finsihed 8 for $68 profit when i hit 2 pair and villain hit runner runner to hit 4 to a flush and knock me out, if id won i would have gone 4th in chips but not to be.

Tourney Profit: $68

Total Proft/Loss +$840.80

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Month 5 Week 2 Completion

100nl Stats

11,985 Hands Played
Profit +$1,653.86
BB/100 6.90
V$PIP 21%
PFR 16%
Post Flop Aggro 2.14
Showdowns Won 54%
Rakeback $350

Total Proft/Loss +$2,003.86



Funny week, i ran well no doubt about that but i started getting into 3/4betting light alot more and even though i actually done ok i made some horrible calls, i made some good bluffs after 3bets and got called with a few bluffs but i was definetley on the better side of the results and i think my aggression over ran them until i got sloppy and became a calling station for a while (see 2 big yoyo dips in above chart), had i picked better spots to call light and not called all in a few times with the likes of BP etc i would have done so much better, i just think i lose my edge because when theres not alot of light 3betting i can read the opponents better because i can narrow their range much better.

In short ive alot to learn about 3/4 betting and i dont really need to be doing it that much at this level, ill get some coaching on it before a move up and watch alot of cardrunners videos but for now ill just calm it down a bit until i get the hang of it plus all those with notes on me 3betting light now will be calling me down lighter and ill have tightened up so ill have an edge.

Got my New Dell Monitor and have increased to 8tabling from 5tabling. Heres some screenshots, the bit with the fire background is my 2nd smaller monitor so you can see the difference in dimesions between the 2:














Its pretty damn cool and worth every penny, but its looking lonely so maybe sometime in the future ill have to get it a partner. It wont be long paying for itself by the look of it through rakeback and also the extra im winning extra by playing 3 more tables while im showing a profit. On that note im also moving back to GJP, my Rakeback/Loyalty Scheme will now be paid monthly so ill update it whenever it arrives early each month. I hope my new home is good to me.

Im starting to get the bug to move up although id rather just keep going at this rate to get a better idea of where im really at over a larger sample. The last thing i want is to move up and get hammered and lose a few K of the bankroll and have to start again.

My bankroll was 3k when i moved to 100nl 3 or 4 weeks ago, ive been mostly withdrawing the majority of profits to my credit card and bank but ive added a small portion each week and my bankroll is 3.8k now. I could easily not withdraw for 3-4 weeks and if i continue to run as good ill be around the 7k mark which would be sufficent to move up but id much rather have that money cleared off my credit card etc, as im off the drink for a month ill need very little cash for myself so i might put whatever money i would have been withdrawing into my bankroll and the rest in the credit card, ill see how things go.